BuzzerBeater Forums

I'm sure this has been discussed before so if there is already a thread please feel free to refer me to that.

I'd like to understand the impact of GDP if you select one of the strategies correct and the other one incorrect. Is it net positive, net negative or neutral?

I don't know exactly but I believe it does matter how far off your prediction is; ie if you guessed outside and they attack inside, it will be a worse than if they play balanced.

My belief is that one correct guess and one incorrect guess is always better or equal to not guessing at all. It is net positive in my opinion if you guess closely but not correct. For example:

If you opponent plays LI:

Net positive = Normal focus and fast pace.

Net equal = Inside focus and slow pace.

Net negative = Two incorrect guesses of any sorts.

Looking at the positive and equal nets specifically, I believe this is the case, because you are penalized more for a more incorrect guess (in this example slow instead of fast). So in the net equal that I posted, I believe the slow guess and inside focus cancel each other out and is like you didn't use GDP at all. However, in the first one, where it is net positive, I believe you get .5 of the GDP since you got one 100% right and one 50% wrong.

More mathematical way to look at it (and the way my brain processes the GDP).

You get +1 point for every correct GDP guess, and -.5 point for every half wrong guess, and -1 point for every completely wrong guess. This to me, is why double guesses aren't the worst thing, even if you get one of them wrong. Other people may have different perspectives on this, but this is my personal opinion on it, and through my experiences with the GDP it seems pretty accurate to me.

We have tested in a series of friendlies the impact of the GDP. The rsults was that the focus has a higher impact than the pace. That means if you guess the focus wrong and the pace right, you have a small disadvantage. Overall is the impacct about 10%. Focus is ~7.5 and pace ~2.5%

Really? Mind sharing your findings with examples?

We played a series of friendlies. Exactly the same line-up, with different GDPs, completely right, halv right (both directions) and completely wrong. And the numbers were the outcome. Unfortunately our teams were not strong enough tho figure out more precise numbers.

I don't understand how that can be very accurate if you have players GS varying from friendly to friendly. I'm still under the impression that both GDP features are considered with equal weight.

The result was that, if you just have one wrong and one right, the ratings were higher if you have the ratings right and the pace wrong. So that´s for sure, but if it is 2,5 or 3 % that´s beyond our observations. But If you want, we can repeat the experiment in the next weeks ...

No that's fine! Thanks.