BuzzerBeater Forums

Yes our luck is now a little higher than Spain or Italy after the last draft (when looking over 10 seasons). Here is 10 seasons of active ATG players now:

USA: 22
Spain: 21
Italy: 20


Since we are a little smaller in number of users this last draft put us ahead in luck over 10 seasons. However, if you look at S53 Spain had 6 all-time greats. Before this season our luck was much worse than them as Spain had 20, Italy had 19, and we had 13.

The fact is this draft is an outlier, but go ahead and try and use it to push your agenda. It would just be good if you tried to understand statistics a little better.

Just dropping my 2¢ since I was the one who started this mayhem and I feel somewhat responsible...

I do not think the draft is unfair.

I do not think we need any more business logic changes. In fact I more or less dislike the recent ones but I can live with them.

All I meant to say is that I believe we need to have a lot less ATGs. I believe that not because of their higher potential cap but because of the fact that they are guaranteed superstars (in the right hands) right from the moment they start training.

I do not have any major problems with the algorithm. I do not see this as a functional defect. I see it as purely a cosmetic issue. All I would change is the threshold at which a player is visualized as ATG. If it is 10.95 now, I would make it 10.98 or 10.99. That's all!



Last edited by mink0ff at 03/28/2024 19:03:23

I mean you should consider them in my opinion, because they are technically part of the pool for ATGs and help explain why certain nations may have more and which nations truly got luckier/more unlucky.

A 5/5 draftee spawn can be 9, 10, or 11 potential. The BB engine does not discriminate on if the player being spawned is going to an active team or not. That’s where nation size comes into play because there’s a better chance that those 11 potential players go to an active manager if it’s a country with more users.

The ATG spawns overall (whether going to a bot or a human) just showcase how ATGs aren’t more likely to go to an active manager of any specific country than to a bot of any specific country. It’s just how probability works. Let’s say just for an example that per every 250 5/5 spawns, there is one ATG….

1/250 chance for a smaller nation is going to be the exact same as 1/250 for a larger nation. When you can multiple the 250 x 3-4 (because the USA has 3-4x more users than some other nations), you end up with 3/750 or 4/1000. The probability is still the exact same but the total of ATGs going to active managers is more because the pool is simply bigger. If people want that to be even across all nations, you’d be increasing the probability that smaller nations draft 11 potential players, which would be more unfair in my opinion.

You took a look at the last draft, but did you take a look at the last 30 drafts?

I'm still not sure about how logical is to asign 5/5 draftees to bots...

Well that's an entirely separate conversation. I'm not discussing if that's how I think it should work, I'm just stating that is how it currently works.

OK..everything sounds beautiful, but take a look to last draft...USA has 9 and Spain or Italy 1...

And I talk just considering active teams, what in fact is what matters...an ATG in a bot team is equal to a potential 3, 4, 5 or whatelse

You're looking at a very small sample size of one season. I remember previous seasons where the USA have gotten none or just 1 ATG and other nations of similar size or even smaller size have gotten 5+ ATGs as well. I remember in season 60 (the 59 draft), our entire USA discord was super excited because we had 3 ATGs (one was 19).

You'd need to look at a larger scale than just one season. Also, considering only active teams (because that is what you feel matters), is leading you to come up with conclusions that are simply inaccurate based on how the current structure is set up. Once again, the USA's probability is no more favorable than any other country and looking at previous seasons will prove that.

Let's take Spain and Italy as examples since you brought them up:

Spain: 20 total ATGs from the 9 seasons prior to this season
Season 54 - 3 ATGs
Season 55 - 3 ATGs
Season 56 - 1 ATG
Season 57 - 0 ATGs
Season 58 - 1 ATG
Season 59 - 5 ATGs
Season 60 - 5 ATGs
Season 61 - 1 ATG
Season 62 - 1 ATG

Italy: 19 total ATGs from the 9 seasons prior to this season
Season 54 - 1 ATG
Season 55 - 2 ATGs
Season 56 - 1 ATG
Season 57 - 4 ATGs
Season 58 - 1 ATG
Season 59 - 2 ATGs
Season 60 - 4 ATGs
Season 61 - 3 ATGs
Season 62 - 1 ATG

USA: 14 total ATGs from the 9 seasons prior to this season
Season 54 - 1 ATG
Season 55 - 1 ATG
Season 56 - 1 ATG
Season 57 - 1 ATG
Season 58 - 2 ATGs
Season 59 - 3 ATGs
Season 60 - 2 ATGs
Season 61 - 1 ATG
Season 62 - 2 ATGs

If anything, up until this season, the USA has been fairly unlucky with ATG spawns at the draft compared to the nations you specifially brought up.

There are very few ATG players in NT roster en general. I think this is not a issue.

starting lineups of World Championship last 5 final games:
S62: Polska - United States : 0 ATG
S60: Deutschland - España: spanish C Luis Peña Serrano (far away from game MVP)
S58: Suomi - France: finish SF Jukka-Pekka Tanhuanpää (also far away from MVP), french PF Frédéric Martins (very good performance)
S56: Deutschland - China: german PG Diderick Maiwald (far away to be MVP), chinese PG Zheng Xiaozhuo (second best of the game), SF An Ruoning (good performance)
S54: Israel - España: israeli SF Lex Augustine (very good performance)

So the result is 50 players in starting lineups en total and just 7 ATGs and 5 of them on winning side and 4 of them playing important role in the final.

Maybe there si one simple solution to avoid the frustration if some nation is more lucky and the others less lucky in the particular draft - skip he ATG potential and every potential above 10.00 show as hall of famer. Even now some hall of famers with 10.99 potential are almost the same as the ones with 11.00.