I'd put it more at like 2 or 3, little more than the homecourt advantage (if there is such a thing in the programming :-p). Both our games have their reasons why I won, advantages. I think things are much tighter this time. I do have home court and the enthusiasm going my way. But there's one or two things working against me, too.
I've certainly had a breakthrough year, but I won't count anything done, you guys are too competitive for that. Fondy and Kaiju could certainly still beat me down even if I advance. But I'm really glad I'm this close... and looking forward to playing these games at home for once!