Alright so I know everybody is looking forward to the game this week between IXL and GEO, and I do agree that it is the game of the week. However, these teams have both been featured in the game of the week, and will again in the future , I'm sure. Plus I said I would do a preview of the most interesting game, which is........
Week 5 (2/1-2/4)
#5 DreamTeam3 vs. #5 Arkansas Kings
This is a game featuring two modestly talented teams in the hunt for a playoff berth, and considering the #4 teams ahead of them are facing difficult opponents this week, the winner of this game has a chance to either jump ahead in the standings or remain closely in the hunt. Both teams have taken a slightly different approach in how to be successful, however they both rely on bringing in imported talent. DRE has perhaps two of the best players in the league now after purchasing Ervin Catajoy, taking some pressure off of MVP candidate Rastislav Budzinák. However all of that star power means that there isnt much money left over for any other talent, as the next highest rated player has a rating of 5.5 (This team has to be bleeding money!). ARK on the other hand has quality players across the board, threatening defenses at every position, and they even have some depth to rely on. The biggest storyline for this game is going to be the matchup between 2 of the best point guards in the game, with Rastislav Budzinák taking on Mei Weiliang one-on-one. Lets take a deeper look at the two teams:
KTV for DRE: Attack inside and defend outside. With the purchase of Ervin Catajoy and Ruediger Madsen, DRE has a sizeable advantage inside and it will be interesting to see if the league leader in RB's (Michel Debaise, 13.8 RB's/game) will be able to hold his own against them. ARK has scored the fewest points from the C position this season in the league and 2nd fewest points from the PF position, so the inside game is not to be feared. However, ARK is shooting 38% from behind the arc, second in the league, and about 25% of the shots they take are from 3-point range. If ARK gets open shots from that range, they are shooting a whopping 52.8%. Allowing ARK to shoot from that range without being contested would be a recipe for disaster. Not to mention that ARK has perhaps the best true SF in the league in Renaldas Šukšinas, who is scoring 23.5 points a game, AND the best backup SF in the league in José Vicente Lizarazu, who is scoring 124 points per 100 shots taken, 8th highest in the entire league. So pretty much what I'm saying is, run a 3-2 zone.
KTV for ARK: Run a high tempo offense. Only a third of DRE's players have a game shape of respectable or strong, and Budzinák's game shape is inept. This means that DRE won't be able to keep up with a high tempo team and they will not perform as efficiently, especially at the end of the game. Also it will take a while for DRE's recent transfers to get used to playing for their new team, depicted by their drop in game shape, and therefor will not play up to their usual standards. ARK's best shot at victory would be to live or die by the three point game. It seems backwards but ARK's shooting percentage while contested gets higher the further away from the basket they go, and considering that DRE is 4th in the league at contesting shots (60%), that would mean that shooting 3's would be a good offensive strategy, as ARK shots 33% from the arc when contested. Expect Lizarazu to have a big game, as DRE has given up an average of 22.7 points per game to the SF position this season.
Final score: DRE - 87, ARK - 92
Once again, another example of game shape being the difference. If DRE can manage the minutes of their stars, then I see this team competing for the number 4 seed this season. But as for this game, chalk up a victory for ARK and their superior backcourt.