i know it is a simulation game based on mathematical formulas. but do you reasonably think that the BB's would have made it so that as you said if a player missed his first 10 shots it would be reasonable to think the player would miss the next 10 based on the fact that he missed the first 10. the BB's are pretty smart people, i believe they wouldve put somewhere into the formula, and i dont know how, because lets face it im doing justice. but it seems to me that they wouldve thought of a way to adapt the formula that eventually the player will hit a shot.
Because the simulation is based on mathematical formulas, it inherently involves a large aspect of probability, and thus, extrapolation is inherently a vital aspect of any analysis we conduct. Consequently, if a player makes his opponent miss all 8 attempted shots, it is safe to assume that the following shots are more likely than not to be missed.
I am not saying that if the player misses 8 shots in a row that he will
definitely miss the next set of shots. All I am saying is that extrapolation allows to show what is more likely than not to occur. But just to prove my point, check out this player:
http://www.buzzerbeater.com/player/7095293/overview.aspxThis player has missed his last 930 free throws. Now you would argue that the BBs are smart people and would have made the formula so this doesn't happen, but the fact is that the BBs have not done this, and that it is possible to have such a streak. Extrapolation works.
ok so if somehow he misses his first 100 shots and then second 100 shots is it then reasonable to assume that he would then shoot a further 200 shots without making 1. therefore he has gone 0-400. at what point does he then make a shot?
As I said earlier there is always a small margin of error when extrapolating, so it is always plausible the player will make the shot. But consider the example above regarding the missed free throws by that player, after he missed the first 100 we could have easily extrapolated that he would be likely to miss the next 100, and then once he missed 200 shots we could extrapolate that he would miss the next 200 shots, and as you can see, the player has missed 930 free throws in a row.
in some ways i am agreeing with you. in that 0-13 is better that 1-17. however i figure that 12 is where i draw the line being that 5 more shots he is likely to hit a shot or 2. 0-8 simply in my view not as good as 1-17 because the player only has to hit 2 from 9 to have a better shooting perfomance that 1-17, regardless of what he shot before those last 9 shots.
So you draw the line at 12 because you think he is likely to make 2 shots out of 5? Considering he has just missed 12 in a row this is highly unlikely. Consider drawing the line at 8, because the player would have to make 2 shots out of the next 9 attempts to be worse than the 1-17 guy, and considering he is currently 0-8 it is highly unlikely that the following shots will be 2-9.