BuzzerBeater Forums

This is a horrible way of testing. There will always be outliers if chance is involved, but outliers are seldom identical.

You are trying to compare one outlier to an older outlier. This does not make ANY sense from a statistical point of view.

It's funny to see that apparently it is up to Marin or Perpete to prove you're wrong. So now they are guilty because you say so until they can prove otherwise? Wow, that's great.

How about you take the effort to compare a number of teams and create a statistically valid sample mean. And compare that to previous seasons. If then there is reason to believe you are right with your allegations, I bet we all would be a lot more happy to talk. Now it's just empty words.



Last edited by Bolleboosje at 5/16/2015 8:29:32 AM

joined with the above point, as you can see, i have 5 players in 9 GS and and 6 players in 8 GS that's 11 players of a 15 man roster, obviously the other 4 just play about 30 mins a week to balance the game shape...

i had about 7-8 guys or so at strong after the 1st week, I don't see the problem. I've always had good GS updates to start the season. Perhaps you should rethink your minutes strategy instead of trying to assign blame or make an excuse for how you're managing your players.

Since it says EGM-Perpete, I still assume he is aware of changes. So when he replied to your post (if the BB's fiddled the GS formula) with "Nah, each season start, we have people wondring if the GS has changed. Apart the recent changes with the stamina, it hasn't." - That is about when I believe him, because I simply do not see any reason to believe the GS formula has been changed. My team is not behaving in a different way than I am used (sometimes I'm lucky at the start of the season, sometimes not, this season I'm somewhere in between). Also in the league around me, I do not see any results that alarm me. But hey, that's just me.

Of course, you have the right to question Perpete's words. Which is fine. The thing that I dislike about your post though, is that you ask for evidence to back up his claims, but do not show any evidence yourself. You only show a current situation and say it was different last season. The behavior of players under the same circumstance last season however you don't show. For that reason it is, as I said before; empty words. You're taking on the role of a little kid who says "I can run twice as fast as I could last year. Unless you prove me otherwise". How about you show us the speed you can run with now (perhaps your personal best from a match) and show us the speed you used to run with last season (your personal best from a match in the past?).
But no, apparently when I ask for this I am building a straw-man argument.

Let me explain it for you so maybe you understand :). From a statistical point of view comparing apples and apples in this kind of analysis is hard. Even you got that. Therefore I went the extra step and picked from this sample:

Thanks for that jab^^ Now let's get back to actual content instead of throwing mud or taking/making things personal. It's too bad you removed a part of your message (to be exact this part:)

This sample can be replicated for previous seasons and since I've had players with 0 minutes in the first week in the past I can guarantee you they did not have a double drop in GS. For the team I linked every single player playing 0 minutes or 130+ had a double drop.

I was about to react to the above before you removed it. I could show you 2 of my players which were injured (or which I didn't use) and made 0 minutes which dropped 2 levels in GS and afterwards one. There is a great function in Buzzer-manager which keeps track of that.

But since you already removed that part of your post, I guess you also figured out it is not as unusual as you thought. Too bad you didn't write that but simply removed it.

Keep in mind that there are several players that in the first week who popped in GS with low minutes (below 48), this guy double popped to proficient with 48 minutes: (34618432). This alone is not in line with what is commonly accepted about GS and I therefore think that Brutus and others are perfectly entitled to question whether or not something has been changed

Players who pop in gameshape below 48 minutes is nothing new to me. So I don't see any reason to make a fuss about this.
About the double pop for the player who made 49 minutes, I honestly don't know. But it is a fact that there is randomness to the GS update (just as to a lot of other things in this game). I have had players with 48 minutes double pop in GS, but I can not recall if this was at the beginning of the season. Either way, to me, it doesn't raise a red flag until someone can show me that this is truly out of the ordinary compared to previous season (and once again, that would need a valid sample size because this can simply be an outlier).

Listen, we can keep on shouting things. Keep on discussing on what points we disagree. Or we can show what we know. In stead of meaningless words all over.

I can show you one of my players who double dropped last season when he made 0 minutes after an injury, perhaps that takes away a part of your doubts. Find that here- http://oi61.tinypic.com/sxna0i.jpg . And yes, that was last season (as you can see by the date mentioned on the left as well).

I can't find a double pop on 48 minutes on my team, I didn't update my buzzer-manager stats each week, so no confirmation directly from my team (because I think I had it happen last season of the season before, but I can't be sure of that anymore). Within the old buzzerbeater forums I was able to find people who had a double pop after 50 min. http://www.buzzerbeater.com/community/forum/read.aspx?thr... in the first week of the season. Of course it's not conclusive evidence or anything, but it is something.

Now let's see what you have to share.

The player I linked previously double popped in the second week with 43. This player (36692852) double dropped the first week on 27 minutes and TRIPLE POPPED on 40 minutes in the second week...

I, to my knowledge, have never seen a triple pop. Do you use buzzer manager to keep track of your players? If you could show us/me at least this part of your claim, I think a lot more people would be inclined to confer over your point of view on the GS matter.
Because right now I tend to think you're wrong (also because you claim your player double dropped on 27 minutes, which cleary would only have been 9 playing minutes taken into account for the GS update). To me this means you don't keep the right track of your players, but hey, perhaps you can backup your claim. I surely hope you can, it would suddenly make this topic a lot more interesting.

Hi everyone.

In my experience, GS can be frustrating, so I started tracking it to find the "magic minute thresholds" that would guarantee a positive outcome. Found out that there aren't any, but you can kind of guide it along.

This season, for instance, I've got several guys who have played an amount of minutes that had high odds of giving them a bump up each week, based on history, yet have stayed at 7.

Here, let me share one:

Minutes played: 53-56
Starting GS: 7
Historic Outcome (excluding weeks when GS is trained): 3% dropped to 6, 34% stayed at 7, 48% climbed to 8, and 14% double popped to 9.

So there's a 1/3rd change of staying at 7, and when more than a third of my players don't pop up when they have these high odds to do so, I can get a little surly. But then, I remember that there are other weeks when I get more pops than I should, or I play too many minutes with some guys, and they stay at 9 (if you play over 81 minutes, it's a 50% chance you'll drop to 8 and a 14% chance you'll plummet to 7), and I breathe a sigh of relief on Friday morning.

All in all it sounds like there may be some unluckiness going on, but in a game with this many teams and players, that is bound to happen. At the same time, there are teams out there who are basking in glorious GS pops.

Iguanadon