This is fairly simple: the ratings should give an idea about what's reasonable to expect in normal conditions given the match-up, so they should be the expected average of the statistical distribution used for the events they describe.
I mean it's a real upset but as we all know - the ratings weight positions differently thus there's always a potential that position mismatch will lead to differential outcomes. With this effort mismatch - i'd say it's more of a 75/25 advantage Italy here and an OT win makes sense. If we can't assume that human direct input (coaching) will trump basic set probabilities then this game has a glaring issue.
Just watch parts of the 4th quarter and OT and you'll see how the Nederlands used each and every potential mismatch and opportunity they had. The teams are well-balanced outside (as the ratings show) thus playing a 3-2 zone enabled NL to limit quality touches for the inside monsters (advantage Italy as the ratings show). No idea about what the Italian SF looks like but it seems that his outside defense was exploited by NL, thus the rating advantage was limited. Playing two > 40k inside players probably means that they have bad driving and handling so yet again - bad looks created by putting pressure on guards leads to limited upside of high ID and IS.
Last edited by Randy Maus at 2/14/2017 8:46:42 PM