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Hi-skilled beaten by low-skilled?

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250407.1
Date: 10/28/2013 1:36:07 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
I don't have an example at hand, but in the last 5 seasons I've seen how sometimes low skilled players have a day at the park versus high skilled players (usually in the form of high fg%, 3fg%). I've seen this happening even taking into account other variables like offensive or defensive tactics, game shape, stamina, enthusiasm,... etc. and I still don't get it.

Maybe it is because of X factor, but even so, I've seen how players, for example guards with low JS, JR, DV (like level 9-10), consistently have a better fg% than players with a higher skill set (level 15+) with almost the same minutes. And what is more, I've seen how after a pop up in JS or JR the fg% drops dramatically (.490 to .333), when in theory it's suppose to go up.

If anyone have an answer please tell me what I'm missing, specially for the drop in fg% after poping up, it's maddening.


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250407.2 in reply to 250407.1
Date: 10/28/2013 2:50:10 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Could be game shape and stamina. Or if that is not the case, think about this:

The higher JS a player has the more they think they will be able to make a shot so they will take more shots than a player with less JS skills. This could result in more shots taken and more shots made, but at a lower percentage than the player with less skilled JS and JR who is not taking as many jump shots and long range shots.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
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250407.3 in reply to 250407.2
Date: 10/28/2013 10:38:40 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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The game manual say this:

Jump Shot: A better shooter will make more shots at all distances.
Jump Range: A player with a higher jump range will find that the effectiveness of his jump shot decreases less with distance.

So it's a good hypothesis, but it doesn't explain how after a pop up in JS or JR a player decreases his ft% and 3fg%; curiously after another pop up in either one of those skills his % increases or goes back to normal. Specially talking about higher skill levels 15+ the reason I brought it up it's because sometimes I don't know if a pop up is gonna hurt or benefit a player.

Also, it doesn't explain how a player of 15k with low stamina and low game shape beats one of 150k with high stamina and great game shape, and taking into account game tactics. Obviously not always, but I have seen rare cases when that happens, it's mind blowing.

In real life I can explain it away, but in a simulation it's hard to understand.

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250407.4 in reply to 250407.3
Date: 10/28/2013 11:07:43 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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You are thinking about numbers and percentages too much. It is always better to get your players more pops, to think otherwise is kind of silly. In the long run a 130k SG will always be more effective than a 15k SG. Much of this may also deal with the fact that opponents will be more prone to trying to defend an 100k+ SG with their best defender, instead of a 15k SG so his percentage can sometimes be higher.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
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250407.5 in reply to 250407.3
Date: 10/29/2013 2:20:27 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
146146
So it's a good hypothesis, but it doesn't explain how after a pop up in JS or JR a player decreases his ft% and 3fg%; curiously after another pop up in either one of those skills his % increases or goes back to normal. Specially talking about higher skill levels 15+ the reason I brought it up it's because sometimes I don't know if a pop up is gonna hurt or benefit a player.

It's important to remember that a) a single skill increase is marginal, b) outside scoring is complex, c) you're dealing with extremely small sample sizes, and d) you don't really know any of the variables. There's a bias involved here.

Also, it doesn't explain how a player of 15k with low stamina and low game shape beats one of 150k with high stamina and great game shape, and taking into account game tactics.

I don't have an example at hand, but in the last 5 seasons I've seen how sometimes low skilled players have a day at the park versus high skilled players (usually in the form of high fg%, 3fg%). I've seen this happening even taking into account other variables like offensive or defensive tactics, game shape, stamina, enthusiasm,... etc. and I still don't get it.


And I recognize all this to be extreme exaggeration. I'll just leave it at that unless you want me to elaborate.

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250407.6 in reply to 250407.5
Date: 10/29/2013 2:36:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1515
So basically it all comes down to what we already knew and that is: It can't be known.

I guess my goal with all of this was to know if other managers had experience the same situation, since for me it's really weird to change my training to deal with this.

Thanks for your answers.


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250407.7 in reply to 250407.1
Date: 10/29/2013 5:57:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
137137
Enthusiasm is the reason why along player tiredness. It possible to beat better team if your enthusiasm is much higher.

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250407.8 in reply to 250407.7
Date: 10/29/2013 6:31:32 PM
Galloping Sloths
III.4
Overall Posts Rated:
101101
Nothing really to add, except I've noticed that my most successful scorers are not the ones with the highest JS or Drive or Range, but the ones with the right combination.

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250407.9 in reply to 250407.1
Date: 10/29/2013 11:45:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4141
I always scout the opposing team and put my best defender on the opposing teams best scorer or high salaried player.. I know a lot if managers do this so that's another reason why skilled players have low efficiency and not the best stats.

From: GM-hrudey

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250407.11 in reply to 250407.10
Date: 10/30/2013 11:12:54 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Still though to really get this thread going, to even justify any discussion, we need hard data...otherwise we are trying to come up for explanation for how you feel about what you think you have observed. Even if I agree and see the same thing, its just our impression, it can't stand in place of actual data.


Definitely. The only thing I have is a guy who consistently shoots jump shots better when he's guarded than he does on open shots, and this isn't a case of matching up with poor OD big men. Through two and a half seasons, the tally is now 92/167 when guarded, 66/157 when open - with similar distributions over each individual season to date. That's probably the only thing I have with anything approaching a reasonable sample size, though small sample stuff like two 8JR bigs are 8-9 on open threes while my 15JS 15JR SG is 4/20 on open threes is fun but not significant.