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The Optimal Outside Scorer

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273504.1
Date: 09/12/2015 14:16:49
Overall Posts Rated:
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So I'm curious as to what everybody here would say is the best build for a guard in a team running an outside offense! I was thinking that the best scorer in such an offense would be heavy on JR but after reading a few threads on JR people seem to think it's pretty useless in the eyes of unstoppable OD.

So what do you think the best guard scorer would be in an offense like Motion? Post em down below!

This Post:
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273504.2 in reply to 273504.1
Date: 09/12/2015 16:43:33
Palestra Itália
III.1
Overall Posts Rated:
296296
Second Team:
S.E. Palmeiras
outside offense is broken IMO. In Brazil´s top league the best outside team shoots just 30% from 3.

From: Otis

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273504.5 in reply to 273504.1
Date: 09/13/2015 05:03:48
The Defenders
RBBA
Overall Posts Rated:
445445
Second Team:
The D-fenders
in my experience at the top level the potential of having a difference maker on the outside is really consumed. meaning, everybody has OD:15 and even if you have JS +JR over 34 your chances of dominating him are slim, at best you hit around 40%-45 of your outside shots.

i think that in order to win with an outside offense you need tyo do the same as the guys with the inside offnse did (namely having IS on Pg-SG), hence my suggestion is to build an outside oriented PF AND C in order to have an advantage, think a dramymond green type player.

it is easier to get a PF with Js+jr>20 scoring against OD 10 than the cobination listed earlier regarding SG. and mind you, there are many PF with OD around 8-9-10 but very few above that that also have rebounding and other big man skills.

hers an example where i lost due to having an inferior team on the field but my center went bonkers.


game in buzzerbeater's best group round
http://www.buzzerbeater.com/match/78440852/boxscore.aspx my center had Js 15 and JR 8 (and ID 16 and rb 10 to hold up).

so to recap, do whatever you want on the outside but focus bringing those skills to your PF or C, granted he can also defend.

From: Randy Maus

To: Otis
This Post:
11
273504.6 in reply to 273504.5
Date: 09/13/2015 10:02:12
Overall Posts Rated:
5252
...... even if you have JS +JR over 34 your chances of dominating him are slim, at best you hit around 40%-45 of your outside shots.

.


This might not be the correct place to get into this but I am constantly wondering what people are expecting from outside shooting in terms of efficiency and domination?

Looking at it strictly as a question of 3pters (which is not correct but whatever) then a percentage around 40-45% would put your player as one of the top 10 NBA shooters ever (Kerr at 45% and Curry at 44%). The average percentage for even the better outside scoring NBA teams are 33%.

I have yet to see proof that it doesn't pay off to have 1-2 great outside shooters on a line-up that also can drive and rebound (i.e the NBA way).






Last edited by Randy Maus at 09/13/2015 10:05:24

From: Phyr

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273504.7 in reply to 273504.1
Date: 09/13/2015 10:56:53
Overall Posts Rated:
654654
The issue with JR IMHO is that it really only affects three-point shots. If you are an outside team, you definitely need JR because 3 point shots are nearly 50% of shots taken by a outside SG. Somewhere between 85-90% of outside sg shots are either jump shots or 3 pointers so obviously JS and JR are building blocks of an outside guard. After that it gets a little murky and depends on what type of team you are building and what secondary offense you want to use. You can make arguments about needing

DR - I personally love DR on everyone. While outside offenses don't create alot of driving shots, high DR can help an outside team in a couple ways. We had two guards in my first term as U21 manager who had about the same JS/JR but one had much better DR and IMHO performed better and was able to start in many different tactics.
1) "Allows the player to create his own shot without a good pass from a teammate." If you decide to have lower HA/PA on your team, higher DR helps you create shots if you have bad passing.
2) "Better driving creates shots more often and creates better shots on average." If this guy is suppose to be your best scorer, you want him shooting the most and shooting the best shots possible.
3) Gives you flexibility to play other offenses. DR is especially important for the Isos. If you want to set up your outside stud as your patient shooter, my second point is important as well.

HA/PA -I usually group HA/PA together. If you use alot of 1v1 to put DR on your guy (and increase your HA), you probably will have to lower the amount of PA and vice versa.
1) "Important against... good perimeter defense. Teams with good handling will have more success at creating quality shot opportunities." So you want to beat OD?
2) "[PA] Helps to create good shots (and get assists)." I think PA is especially important if you want to play Princeton. Better passing, leads to assisted shots. On the NT level, the USA has had good passing on pretty much all of our guards the last couple of seasons and I think it helped us a little more to over come high OD than the Chinese method of punting PA. At the same time, do you want your outside stud passing the ball or do you want him to shoot?

OD- I think everyone pretty much agrees OD is the most important guard skill in BB. The problem is that it is the second most expensive skill in the SG salary formula after JR and takes up significantly more cap and salary room than the PG formula. Like Manon said, having build between the PG/SG positions helps but you might also consider getting a little creative and training alot ID and defensive switching to SF so that you can train less OD and more of the other outside skills.

From: Phyr

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273504.8 in reply to 273504.6
Date: 09/13/2015 11:38:11
Overall Posts Rated:
654654
The NBA is in the midst of a three-point shooting revolution. Half of the Top 20 career leaders in three-point shooting percentage are active players. I would consider anything above 35% good and anything above 40% great. The top 10 shooters in the NBA last season all had 3 point percentages over 40%.

The top 4 players in my DII have 3 point percentages over 40 which is in line with that number but after that there are only 9 players with a percentage over 30%.

From: Randy Maus

To: Phyr
This Post:
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273504.9 in reply to 273504.8
Date: 09/13/2015 12:32:02
Overall Posts Rated:
5252
I think your DII stats are great - 4 players over 40% and the rest around 30. I'd rather compare sub-divisions in BB to NCAA top 8 divisions and then your numbers look great. My previous NBA example was just related to the best of the BBs.

Your point about increasing efficiency in the NBA (I don't buy it but ESPN does so yeah) lends support to my point - either you build a team that creates really strong mismatches and collapsing defenses (kick-outs to 3pt specialist) or teams with more than 2-3 strong outside shooters.

I am just arguing because it is stupid that the forum always guides people away from outside shooters without any real evidence that a strong outside line-up + tactic wouldn't work great today.

Last edited by Randy Maus at 09/13/2015 12:33:11

From: Otis

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273504.10 in reply to 273504.6
Date: 09/13/2015 13:17:21
The Defenders
RBBA
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Second Team:
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fist and foremost you are comparing nba players who face alot of attention whenever they are on the floor. be it in sabermetric terms "gravity" the fact that they hit so many trees guarded as primary options means they can hit much more while being guarded by lesser players, as is the case in BB.

but to counter your point

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct

RK PLAYER TEAM GP PPG 3PM 3PA 3PM 3PA 3P% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS FG%
1 Luke Babbitt, SF NO 63 4.1 0.9 2 59 115 .513 33 77 .429 1.33 .633
2 Kyle Korver, SG ATL 75 12.1 2.9 6 221 449 .492 71 151 .470 1.52 .671
3 Eric Gordon, SG NO 61 13.4 2.3 5 141 315 .448 144 379 .380 1.18 .512
4 Stephen Curry, PGGS 80 23.8 3.6 8 286 646 .443 367 695 .528 1.42 .594
6 J.J. Redick, SG LAC 78 16.4 2.6 6 200 458 .437 247 480 .515 1.36 .583
7 Anthony Morrow, SG 74 10.7 1.9 4 141 325 .434 144 290 .497 1.28 .578
8 Hedo Turkoglu, SF 62 3.7 1.0 2 60 139 .432 23 49 .469 1.23 .601
9 Richard Jefferson, SF 74 5.8 0.9 2 66 155 .426 78 169 .462 1.33 .546
10 Danny Green, SG SA 81 11.7 2.4 6 191 457 .418 131 281 .466 1.28 .566
for the season these were the top players. 45% is exagerated but 40% is realistic. and given the small sample size due to number of games in BB i think given circumstance it is more likely to hit 45% because a few lucky shots as opposed to nba standardards where the atempt hundred of throws per season.

From: Chekreyes

To: Otis
This Post:
11
273504.11 in reply to 273504.10
Date: 09/13/2015 17:00:49
Overall Posts Rated:
926926
If I could put together a team that shoots even 33% from behind the arc I feel like I'd be sitting pretty. That equates to an average of 1 point per shot which would be the same as shooting 50% from field goal range.

I just barely played a game in which I felt my guards out classed the competition. However my team ended up shooting 4-26 on three pointers with 3 of the 4 made shots coming from my big men. I think there is something to be said for a team that uses big men to shoot long distance shots.