Season 64 Preview
Welcome to an awkward introduction of my team as the Lion Rebels venture into Div II with trepidation. The past several seasons in Div III.11 I've written up some rankings, which are usually LOUDLY INCORRECT (though I will say, I had last season's predictions nailed to a crooked T). Before I get to far in, here's how I run through the numbers to come to my grand conclusion:
I measure salary against the average for each category supplied and then assign a point value based on that. What are the categories, you ask? Well, Buzzer-Manager supplies these numbers for us, and the categories I pull through are as follows:
- Total Salary
- Top 5 Salary
- Top 8 Salary
- Top 10 Salary
- Top 6-10 Salary
Of those categories, I weigh Total Salary the highest, followed by Top 6-10 (what I call "bench play" but that's mostly a figure of speech), and then Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted equally, with Top 10 weighted the lowest. Here's how it works (based on Total Salary):
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $100,000 = 60 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $50,000 = 50 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $25,000 = 40 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average = 30 points
Team Total Salary < League Total Salary Average = 20 points
Team Total Salary + $25,000 < League Total Salary Average = 15 points
Team Total Salary + $50,000 < League Total Salary Average = 10 points
Team Total Salary + $100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 points
And so on and so forth for each added category. Top 6-10 is weighted from 0-50, Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted from 0-30, and Top 10 is weighted from 0-15 in similar fashion.
Once I have those set, I add each team's score up and divide by five and then you get the means by which I rank teams. Is it perfect? Nope! Is it normal? Not even! Does it make it more fun? I sure hope so!
Any ties are broken by the Top 6-10 rank (of which there was only one this year). All in all, if my predictions are correct, it looks to be pretty clear cut between who is good and who is not. But the great thing about this is that things will change drastically especially as roster moves are still on the horizon. So, it's important to note that 17 potential transfers out of the league, with eight of those being BIG MOVES (salary of at least $39k). And that doesn't include anyone bringing anyone else in.
My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.
Current League Leaders in Salary
1. TripB - $723k. Four players at more than $100k. Wowza.
2. The Phantom Thieves - $671k. Three players at more than $100k. Wowz.
3. Deronimo - $656k. Four players more than $100k, with one on the chopping block and the other with a stomach virus.
Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see the same trio:
1. TripB - $657k - 90.8% of their total salaries
2. The Phantom Thieves - $582k - 86.7%
3. Deronimo - $529k - 80.6%
Overall, the 16 teams average $402k for top 5 paid players with six teams averaging $50k more than that average and eight teams averaging less than the average.
Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Blue Ocean - $159k ($31.8k per player and the clear standout in Top 6-10)
2. The Reductions - $115k ($23k per player)
3. Deronimo - $111k ($22.2k per player)
Just two other teams are spending more than $100k on their top 6-10 players.